Polkadot (DOT) Daily Market Analysis: October 1, 2025

A comprehensive daily overview of Polkadot’s market performance and short-term outlook.

In a market navigating mixed signals, Polkadot (DOT) has demonstrated relative stability over the last 24 hours. While broader market sentiment remains cautious, activity within the Polkadot ecosystem, particularly around a key governance vote, is drawing investor attention. This report provides a detailed analysis of DOT’s price action, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics from the past day.

1. Price Action

24-Hour High/Low: Polkadot reached a high of approximately $4.02 and a low of $3.80 over the past 24 hours.
Current Price & Percentage Change: As of this report, DOT is trading around $3.92, marking a slight increase of approximately 0.32% to 1.8% in the last 24 hours.
Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume is registered at approximately $191 million to $264 million. This level indicates active market participation and healthy liquidity for the asset.

2. Technical Indicators

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Polkadot’s price is currently situated below its key exponential moving averages on the daily chart, suggesting a bearish trend from a technical standpoint. There are no immediate “golden cross” or “death cross” formations to report within the last 24-hour period.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current 14-day RSI is hovering around the 30.98 to 52 range, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for a potential move in either direction.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): While some indicators show a bullish MACD signal, the overall momentum appears to be shifting towards a neutral or slightly bearish stance as bears dominate despite the signal.
On-Chain Data: Over the past 24 hours, there have been total liquidations of approximately $758,730, with the majority being long positions ($708,140). The largest single liquidation order was a long position worth $220,770 on Binance. Such data indicates that recent price dips have forced the closure of leveraged bullish bets.

3. Support and Resistance

Immediate Resistance: The key immediate resistance level for Polkadot is in the range of $4.02 to $4.10. A sustained break above this level could signal a potential upward trend.
Key Support: Bulls must defend the support zone between $3.80 and $3.90. A failure to hold this level could lead to further downside pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci levels are crucial in identifying potential turning points. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at approximately $7.34 and the 0.618 level at $6.45 are significant long-term markers. In the more immediate term, pullbacks often find support within the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones of recent upward moves.

4. Fundamental News

Polkadot-Specific News: The most significant recent event is the ongoing governance referendum on a native, DOT-backed stablecoin, pUSD. This proposal aims to enhance the Polkadot DeFi ecosystem by reducing reliance on external stablecoins. As of the latest updates, the vote is nearing the required approval threshold.
Broader Market News: The broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility influenced by institutional ETF flows. While Bitcoin ETFs have seen a recent surge in inflows, Ethereum ETFs have faced outflows, indicating a rotation of capital. Additionally, regulatory developments, such as the withdrawal of several altcoin ETF filings to align with new SEC guidelines, are creating a new landscape for crypto investment products.

Social Sentiment: The overall social sentiment for Polkadot is currently positive, with a sentiment score of 80 out of 100, which is an increase compared to the 30-day moving average.
Trending Narratives: The conversation on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) is largely centered around the pUSD stablecoin proposal, with hashtags like #Polkadot and $DOT being prominent. There is cautious optimism about pUSD’s potential to boost DeFi activity on the network.
Influencer Activity: While no single key influencer has dominated the conversation in the last 24 hours, various crypto analysts and Polkadot community members are actively discussing the implications of the pUSD vote and Polkadot’s technical price levels.

6. Short-Term Outlook & Forecast

Based on the available data, Polkadot’s short-term trajectory appears to be at a pivotal point, heavily influenced by the outcome of the pUSD stablecoin vote and broader market dynamics.

Primary Bullish Scenario: If the pUSD proposal is approved, it could inject significant positive momentum, potentially driving the price to test resistance at $4.10 and above. Optimistic forecasts in this scenario target the $4.50 level. A broader market rally led by positive ETF news could further support this upward movement.
Primary Bearish Scenario: A failure of the pUSD vote or negative sentiment from the broader crypto market could see DOT break below its crucial support at $3.80. This could open the door for a retest of lower support levels. Continued dominance by bears could lead to a deeper correction.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Polkadot (DOT) Daily Market Analysis: October 1, 2025