Solana (SOL) Daily Market Analysis: November 16, 2025

A comprehensive daily overview of Solana’s market performance and a short-term forecast for the next 24-48 hours.

In a market gripped by significant apprehension, Solana (SOL) has experienced a turbulent 24-hour period characterized by heightened volatility and selling pressure. The digital asset is currently navigating a landscape of bearish technical signals and broader market anxiety, though on-chain data suggests underlying resilience. This report provides a detailed analysis of SOL’s performance over the last 24 hours.

1. Price Action

24-Hour High, Low, and Current Price: Over the past 24 hours, Solana reached a high of approximately $144.28 and a low of $137.58. At the time of this report, the current price is approximately $143.12.
Percentage Change: Solana has seen a modest increase of about 2.54% over the last 24 hours, though this comes after a significant weekly drop.
Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $3.91 billion, which represents a significant decrease of over 60% compared to recent activity. This sharp decline in volume amidst price volatility suggests a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers.

2. Technical Indicators

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Solana is currently trading below its 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, which is a strong indication of short-term bearish momentum. The 50-day EMA is trending downwards and approaching the 200-day EMA, hinting at a potential ‘death cross’ formation if this trend continues, which would signal a longer-term bearish outlook.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI value is approximately 31.19, placing it in neutral territory but close to the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests that while bearish momentum is present, there might be limited room for further significant downside before a potential corrective bounce.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD indicator remains below its signal line and in negative territory. The negative histogram confirms that bearish momentum is currently in control, with no immediate signs of a bullish reversal.
On-Chain Data: On-chain metrics present a mixed picture. While the price has been under pressure, Solana’s network continues to show signs of robust activity, generating significant decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. Notably, Solana-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen inflows, with a recent report of a $12 million inflow, contrasting with outflows from larger assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, there has also been notable selling pressure, with one whale reportedly selling over 33,000 SOL.

3. Support and Resistance

Immediate Resistance: The key immediate resistance level for Solana is in the $144.21 to $145.00 range. A decisive break above this level would be necessary to challenge further resistance at approximately $149.46.
Key Support: The most critical immediate support level that bulls must defend is between $134.96 and $136.00. A failure to hold this level could see the price decline towards a stronger support zone around $125.71 to $130.97.
Fibonacci Retracement: According to Fibonacci levels, the next significant support zone is identified near $136.00, aligning with other technical support indicators.

4. Fundamental News

Asset-Specific News: A Solana-focused hackathon, aimed at fostering development on the network, is taking place at the University of Edinburgh and other partner universities from November 15-16, 2025. Additionally, Upexi, a company with a significant treasury of SOL, announced a $50 million share buyback. In other news, Solana Company is scheduled to release its third-quarter operating results on November 18, 2025, which will be a key event for investors to watch.
Broader Market News: The broader cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of “Extreme Fear,” with the Fear & Greed Index at a low of 18/100. This sentiment is fueled by macroeconomic concerns such as rising U.S. bond yields and fears of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the negative market sentiment, creating downward pressure on altcoins like Solana.

Social Sentiment: The overall social sentiment surrounding Solana is mixed, leaning towards bearish in the short term due to the prevailing market conditions. The “Extreme Fear” market sentiment is a dominant topic of conversation.
Notable Narratives: The current discourse is centered on the divergence between Solana’s strong on-chain activity and institutional ETF inflows versus the bearish technical indicators and negative macroeconomic environment. There is an ongoing debate about whether Solana can decouple from the broader market downturn.
Key Influencers: While no single influencer has dominated the conversation in the last 24 hours, the narrative is being shaped by technical analysts pointing to the bearish chart patterns and fundamental analysts highlighting the network’s underlying strength.

6. Short-Term Outlook & Forecast

Based on the synthesis of the available data, the short-term outlook for Solana remains cautious with a bearish bias. The strong bearish technical signals, coupled with the “Extreme Fear” in the broader market, suggest that further downside is possible.

Primary Bearish Scenario: If Solana fails to hold the key support level of $134.96, a further decline towards the $125.71 to $130.97 range is likely in the next 24-48 hours. The decreased trading volume indicates that a significant catalyst would be needed to reverse the current downward trajectory.
Potential Bullish Scenario: If the $134.96 support level holds and the broader market sentiment sees some relief, a bounce towards the immediate resistance at $144.21 is plausible. A break above this level could see a recovery towards the $149.46 resistance. The continued inflows into Solana ETFs could provide a degree of resilience not seen in other digital assets.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.