Solana (SOL) Market Analysis: Navigating Key Levels Amid Shifting Momentum
November 12, 2025 – Solana (SOL) has experienced a volatile 24-hour period, characterized by a significant intraday range and heightened liquidation activity. The digital asset is currently contending with critical technical levels that could dictate its short-term trajectory. While broader market sentiment and institutional flows offer some support, on-chain indicators present a mixed picture for the near future.
1. Price Action
- Over the last 24 hours, Solana reached a high of approximately $171.88 and a low of around $153.83. At the time of this report, the current price is hovering near $160.07.
- This price movement represents a decrease of approximately 5.4% over the 24-hour period.
- The 24-hour trading volume is substantial, recorded at approximately $5.76 billion to $6.04 billion across various platforms, indicating significant market activity.
2. Technical Indicators
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Solana’s price is currently trading below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, which are acting as resistance levels. The 50-day EMA sits around $160.64, with the 200-day EMA at a higher level, suggesting a bearish alignment across these moving averages. There are no immediate signs of a ‘golden cross’ or ‘death cross’ formation.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI value is approximately 37.56, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory but remains in a neutral to slightly bearish zone. This suggests there could be room for further downside before a significant reversal.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is currently below the signal line, with a value of around -2.533. The histogram is in negative territory, confirming that bearish momentum is presently in control, although some analysts note the momentum may be stabilizing.
- On-Chain Data: The last 24 hours have seen significant liquidation activity, with a total of $21.43 million in liquidations. The majority of these were long positions, totaling $19.53 million, indicating that many traders who were betting on a price increase were forced to sell their holdings. This level of long liquidations can sometimes precede a short-term price bounce.
3. Support and Resistance
- Resistance: Immediate resistance is identified in the $166 – $169 range. A more significant resistance zone is found at $171 – $172, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a recent downward move. Overcoming this level could open the path towards the $175 and $188 resistance levels.
- Support: Key immediate support lies in the $162 – $165 range. If the price breaks below this, the next significant support level to defend is around $155, with a stronger support zone near $146 – $150.
- Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci levels indicate that the $163.59 mark is a crucial point to hold for a potential reversal. A failure to maintain this level could lead to a retest of lower supports. The 0.236 Fibonacci level at approximately $189 stands as a more distant resistance target.
4. Fundamental News
- Bybit Enhances Solana DeFi: Today, Bybit announced an expansion of its social DeFi platform, Byreal, with a new referral feature for its “Real Farmer” product on Solana. This development, backed by seven official Solana partners, aims to increase user engagement and growth within the Solana DeFi ecosystem by making yield farming a more social and collaborative experience.
- Broader Market ETF Flows: In the wider cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net inflows of $524 million on November 11th, indicating strong institutional interest in the leading digital asset. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of $107 million. Solana ETFs, however, continued an eleven-day streak of positive inflows, adding $7.98 million. This divergence suggests a growing institutional appetite for Solana as an alternative investment.
5. Social Media and Tweet Activity
- Social Sentiment: The overall social sentiment for Solana is currently mixed, with a notable narrative of “Solana Season” and “ETH Killer” gaining traction on platforms like X (formerly Twitter). There is a palpable sense of bullish enthusiasm for Solana’s long-term potential, though this is tempered by concerns over the broader market’s short-term bearish pressures.
- Trending Narratives: Discussions on social media are highlighting Solana’s technological advancements, lower transaction fees, and expanding ecosystem as key drivers for its growing institutional interest. The recent performance of Solana-based meme coins is also contributing to social buzz.
- Influencer Activity: Several crypto analysts and influencers have been actively discussing Solana’s price action. For instance, Lark Davis pointed out the significant resistance Solana faces, particularly around the convergence of the daily 20 EMA and key Fibonacci levels, stating this area will be decisive for the next price movement.
6. Short-Term Outlook & Forecast
Based on the available data, Solana is at a critical juncture. The technical indicators are leaning bearish in the immediate short-term, with the price below key moving averages and bearish MACD momentum. However, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, and significant long liquidations have occurred, which could set the stage for a short-squeeze or a relief bounce.
- Primary Bullish Scenario: If buyers can defend the $162 – $165 support level and broader market sentiment improves, a push towards the $171 – $172 resistance is plausible. A decisive break above this level, fueled by positive news or strong institutional inflows, could see Solana target the $175 and potentially higher resistance zones in the next 24-48 hours.
- Primary Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold the $162 support could lead to a retest of the $155 level. If bearish momentum continues and sellers remain in control, a further decline towards the stronger support at $146 – $150 is a distinct possibility within the next 24-48 hours.
Resources: This report is based on publicly available data from financial news websites, cryptocurrency data platforms, and social media feeds.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
