Bitcoin Daily Market Analysis: September 28, 2025
A comprehensive daily overview of Bitcoin’s market performance and short-term outlook.
In a volatile 24-hour period, Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, testing key support and resistance levels. The broader cryptocurrency market has seen mixed trading, with a total market capitalization increase of 0.9%. As of today, the global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.77T, reflecting a 0.13% increase over the last day.
1. Price Action
- 24-Hour High, Low, and Current Price: Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $109,824.94 and a low of $109,250.41. At the time of this report, the current price of Bitcoin is approximately $109,455, up by 0.34%.
- Percentage Change: Bitcoin’s value has seen a modest increase of 0.19% in the last 24 hours.
- Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin is registered at $23.67 billion. This represents a significant decrease of 47.00% from the previous day, indicating a recent fall in market activity.
2. Technical Indicators
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): Bitcoin’s price is currently trading below its 20-day EMA of $113,022.98 and its 50-day EMA of $114,729.84, suggesting bearish sentiment in the short to medium term. However, it remains above the 200-day EMA of $101,894.68, indicating that the long-term uptrend is still intact. There are no immediate signs of a ‘golden cross’ or ‘death cross’ formation.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI for Bitcoin is in neutral territory, not indicating strong overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading of 30 or below typically suggests an oversold market, while a reading of 70 or above can indicate an overbought condition.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD is presently in negative territory at -773, confirming bearish momentum in the short term. The MACD line is below the signal line, which is a common sell signal for traders.
- On-Chain Data: In the last 24 hours, there has been a total of $126.75 million in liquidations across the market, with 77,908 traders being liquidated. Of the total liquidations, $70.71 million were long positions, and $56.04 million were short positions. Such significant liquidations often lead to increased market volatility.
3. Support and Resistance
- Immediate Resistance: The first key resistance level for Bitcoin is in the range of $110,500 to $113,000. A decisive break above this area could signal a resumption of the bullish trend. A more significant resistance band lies between $117,000 and $123,000.
- Key Support: Immediate support is being defended in the $109,000 to $109,200 range. If this level fails to hold, the next significant support zone is between $107,000 and $107,270. The most critical long-term support is identified near $102,000, which aligns with the 200-day moving average.
- Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to identify potential support and resistance. The most commonly watched levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. For example, a retracement to the 61.8% “golden ratio” level after a significant price move is often seen as a key area of interest for traders.
4. Fundamental News
- Regulatory Developments: In the United States, there is growing bipartisan momentum for establishing clear crypto regulations. Top regulators are preparing for a landmark roundtable that could reshape the rules for the crypto industry. Globally, the US and UK have formed a task force to redefine international rules for digital assets.
- Broader Market News: The market is reacting to recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which met analysts’ expectations and has increased the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year. In other news, discussions around nation-state adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve are ongoing, which could have significant long-term implications for its value.
5. Social Media and Tweet Activity
- Social Sentiment: The overall social sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is currently leaning towards “Fear,” as indicated by a drop in the Fear & Greed Index to 28/100. This low reading has historically sometimes preceded price rebounds.
- Trending Narratives: The hashtag #BitcoinBuilder has been trending on X (formerly Twitter), driven by a community of developers and entrepreneurs focused on building on the Bitcoin network. This highlights a growing interest in the technological development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
- Influencer Activity: While specific influencer commentary can be varied, the general discussion revolves around the current price consolidation and the potential for a significant move. The trending narratives indicate a focus on both the short-term price action and the long-term building and adoption of Bitcoin technology.
6. Short-Term Outlook & Forecast
Based on the current technical and fundamental data, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin appears to be at a decision point. The price is consolidating between key support and resistance levels.
- Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the resistance level at $110,500, it could signal renewed buyer confidence. A decisive break above $113,000 could open the path for a retest of higher resistance levels, potentially targeting the $117,000 area. Positive sentiment from the broader market due to favorable economic data could support this move.
- Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold the immediate support at $109,000 could see the price decline towards the next support zone around $107,000. Increased selling pressure, potentially triggered by negative market news or further long liquidations, could push the price down to test the critical long-term support near the 200-day EMA at approximately $102,000.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
