Major Payroll Revision Signals Labor Market Weakness
- The US Labor Department has made a significant downward revision of payrolls by 911,000 jobs, marking the largest decrease in history and indicating profound weaknesses in the labor market.
- This revision bolsters the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, even as inflation remains elevated.
- Bitcoin may replicate gold’s rally and regain upward momentum toward new highs in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) seems poised for a potential price boost in the coming weeks following the US Labor Department’s record payroll revision, which reduced previously reported data by 911,000 jobs for the twelve months ending March 2025. This averages out to 76,000 jobs overstated each month, officially surpassing the 2009 revision seen at the height of the global financial crisis.
The Kobeissi newsletter noted that losses were particularly severe in consumer-focused sectors, with a decrease of −176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality and −226,000 in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. The total number of private hiring was overstated by 880,000 jobs, a level of weakness not observed since the Great Depression and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
These revisions highlight a troubling trend. The previous month, the US had already cut 258,000 jobs from the May and June reports. The revision added another 27,000 jobs, marking the largest two-month net revision in modern history, outside of 2020. In conjunction with August’s meager 22,000-job gain, this data strongly suggests a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
Gold, often regarded as a traditional safe haven, has surged 40% this year, with gold mining stocks nearly doubling their returns, which is almost ten times that of the S&P 500. Investors have long speculated that a weakening labor market would compel the Fed to take action, despite the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbing back above 3% and growth hovering around 3%.
For Bitcoin, the ramifications could be even more significant. Bitwise Strategist André Dragosch captured this idea succinctly in a post on X, stating,
“With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in eight days, it will mark the first cut in history with inflation still hot, stocks at record highs, and GDP strong. That combination signals one thing: the central bank is prioritizing labor weakness over inflation, creating a ‘dovish but cautious’ tone.”
The advantages for Bitcoin are quite clear. Just as gold experienced a rally months ahead of policy confirmation, Bitcoin’s lean positioning and historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles could turn this rare policy environment into a potent upward catalyst, potentially reigniting momentum toward new highs in Q4.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries inherent risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.
