Bullish Trend Confirmation Needed for BTC
BTC needs to surpass $113,650 to validate a bullish trend; otherwise, there’s a risk of a decline towards $100,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot market is exhibiting signs of a potential recovery rally. Data from Glassnode reveals that BTC’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) indicates a notable divergence with Ether (ETH). The CBD is an on-chain metric that pinpoints price levels where substantial supply has been either accumulated or redistributed. Although ETH flows remain limited, Bitcoin spot activity is considerably more active, with transactions closely clustered around recent price levels.
This transactional density may suggest strong conviction from buyers, and historically, it has provided more resilient support compared to futures-driven momentum.
Exchange flows support this thesis. A CryptoQuant quicktake post highlights that Coinbase experienced a steady net flow spike between Aug. 25–31, right after its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) reached its lowest point since early 2023. Significant reversals from multi-year lows typically indicate a shift in liquidity regime, whether through settlement restructuring or preparations for increased exchange activity.
On the other hand, Binance recorded its 30-day SMA net flow at the highest level since July 2024 on July 25 and Aug. 25, a point that often aligns with reaccumulation phases before achieving new local highs.
The concurrent Coinbase trough and Binance peak suggest substantial reserve redistribution, which might be setting the stage for upward movement.
The spending by long-term holders (LTH) or possible profit-taking has also picked up in recent weeks, with the 14-day SMA trending upwards. However, this activity remains within normal cycle parameters and significantly lower than the peaks observed in October–November 2024, implying a measured distribution rather than aggressive selling.
Resilience and Current Trends
Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated resilience this week after dropping to $107,300 on Monday, a level that closely matches its short-term realized price, suggesting potential support. From that low point, BTC made a sharp recovery, exceeding Monday’s $109,900 high during the New York trading session on Tuesday.
This increase follows a two-week corrective phase, with shorter time frames such as the 15-minute and 1-hour charts now indicating a bullish break of structure. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has reclaimed levels above 50, further affirming the growing bullish sentiment.
For the upward momentum to persist, Bitcoin must clear the immediate resistance between $112,500 and $113,650. A decisive close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish break of structure on the daily chart and nullify the descending trendline that has constrained price movements for the past two weeks. Such a breakout could pave the way to liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
Nonetheless, traders should exercise caution due to the typically bearish seasonality of September. A failed breakout or ongoing weakness below $113,650 would leave BTC exposed, with downside targets extending towards the order block between $105,000 and $100,000.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading maneuver involves risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
