President Nayib Bukele Highlights Prediction Markets as Bitcoin Holdings Approach $1 Billion
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has drawn attention to prediction markets, as there are growing bets that the country’s Bitcoin assets will reach $1 billion by the end of the year.
On Thursday, Bukele shared his insights on X regarding Kalshi’s prediction market, which has seen increased betting activity concerning El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings reaching the $1 billion mark by late 2025.
“I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele remarked, noting that the odds of El Salvador achieving a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November rose from 20% to 38% on Kalshi that same day.
Shortly after Bukele’s announcement, competitor platform Polymarket surfaced with a similar wager, indicating that the odds for reaching a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 were sitting at 43%.
Kalshi’s prediction market pertaining to El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been operational since mid-August. The bet on “before December 2025” remained around 24%, while “before November 2025” was approximately 18% until recent days.
After peaking at 38%, the odds for the “before November 2025” bet fell to 27%, whereas the “before December 2025” bet stabilized around 35%.
While Kalshi had been monitoring the likelihood of El Salvador’s Bitcoin assets reaching $1 billion for several days, Polymarket launched a comparable market only after Bukele’s tweet.
“New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X just a few hours following Bukele showcasing Kalshi’s market on Thursday.
The press reached out to both Kalshi and Polymarket for comments regarding their market listing policies but had not received any replies by the time of publication.
As both Kalshi and Polymarket prepare to benefit from the growing optimism surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, neither platform established betting markets on a prior controversy.
In July, El Salvador’s central bank president, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, along with finance minister, Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, stated that the country had ceased Bitcoin purchases after signing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Despite these assertions being part of El Salvador’s official communications with the IMF, Bukele and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office continued to tweet about new Bitcoin acquisitions, with current holdings reportedly at 6,282 Bitcoin ($709 million).
So far, neither Juan Carlos Reyes, president of El Salvador’s National Commission on Digital Assets, nor any other involved parties have responded inquiry from July seeking clarification on the controversy.
This information coincides with the increasing traction of prediction markets, as former Polymarket and Kalshi executive Toni Gemayel announced a $15 million raise from investors, including Coinbase Ventures, for the prediction market platform Clearing Company.
