XRP’s August Performance and September Outlook
XRP is likely to conclude August in the red, raising concerns about a potential bearish trend continuing into September.
Should it lose the $2.80 support, it might intensify selling pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a possible 25% decline ahead.
XRP (XRP) has fallen over 22.30% in the last month after reaching a high of approximately $3.66, putting it on track for a losing close this August.
Will the decline carry over into September? Let’s take a closer look.
Critical Support Level
According to Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap, XRP faces a crucial test near $2.80 in September.
- The largest cluster of supply resides between $2.81 and $2.82, where around 1.71 billion XRP were acquired.
- As of Friday, XRP was trading close to $2.88, slightly above this supply zone.
A drop below this price range could initiate another round of profit-taking, as holders might see their gains diminish.
The next significant support level in September is expected to be at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $1.73, a price point that served as a solid support earlier in 2025.
Technical Indicators
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which assesses changes in trend strength, is set to indicate a bearish crossover in September.
When the faster-moving blue line of the MACD dips below the slower orange line, it signals a loss of momentum, which frequently precedes price pullbacks.
In previous XRP cycles, such crossover events have marked the beginning of retracements ranging from 50% to 60%.
For example, in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025, XRP’s weekly MACD crossed bearish shortly after the price peaked.
Each of these instances led to declines that initially tested the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).
If the MACD fractal pattern repeats, XRP could potentially slide toward the 50-week EMA at approximately $2.17, representing about a 25% decrease in September.
This same downside target has been identified in several analyses of XRP in the past and further aligns with a significant 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support line, as illustrated in the chart below.
Bear Market Confirmation
A decisive fall below both the 50-week EMA and the $1.73 Fibonacci line would confirm the onset of a bear market, where XRP prices could drop as low as its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $1.19.
This scenario has previously occurred following the MACD bearish crossover in September 2021.
At $1.19, XRP/USD would be trading near the average acquisition cost of existing holders, as noted by Glassnode. Although over 90% of XRP holders are currently in profit, this situation heightens the likelihood of profit-taking if prices dip further.
The bulls need to maintain their position above the 50-week EMA to prevent this bearish scenario. Fortunately, since July 2024, XRP has found support at the EMA before regaining momentum and ascending to new multiyear highs.
Several analysts anticipate a similar outcome this time, forecasting that this top three cryptocurrency could reach at least $4 in the upcoming months.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not meant to serve as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of VIZI.
